2017 North Indian Ocean cyclone season/Layten's prediction
Storms Deep Depression BOB 01 BOB 01's origin can be traced to an area of convection that formed near the Andaman Islands on February 23. Th following day, the IMD began issuing advisories on the system, designaring it as Depression BOB 01 in the Bay of Bengal. By 0600 UTC, the JTWC had issued a TCFA on the sytem, noting flaring convective bands wrapping into a developing low level circulation. The IMD further upgraded the system to a deep depression and reported a minimal pressure of 1002 mbar. At 1500 UTC, the JTWC began issuing advisories on the system, designating it as 01B in the process, but not expecting the system to becomea tropical storm due to persistant shear. By 2100 on February 25, the JTWC had issued their final warning on the system as its low level circulation became exposed. At the dpssme time, the IMD downgraded the system to a depression, expectinh dissipation within 24 hours. By 0600 UTC the following morning, the IMD had downgraded the storm to a well defind low pressure area as it moved ashore in Sri Lanka,before reporting the low had dissipated 12 hours later. No deaths were reported, but flooding in the Andama Islands led to $345,000 in damages. Cyclonic Storm Maarutha The origins of Maarutha can be traced to a tropical disrurbace that developed in the South China Sea on May 29. Devoid of significant deep conconvection, the system moved over Malaysia and into the Bay of Bengal on June, and began to organise. On June 2, the JTWC issued a TCFA on the system, and designated it tropical cyclone 02B at 0900 UTC, the same time the IMD designated the system as Depression BOB 02. By 2100 UTC, the JTWC had upgraded the system to a tropical storm, with the IMD designating the system as a deep depression hours earlier. The following day, the IMD upgraded the system to the first cyclonic storm, and designated it with the name Maarutha. Continuing to intensify, Maarutha reached a peak intensity with 3-minute winds of 50 mph, and a minimal pressure of 991 mbar at 1800 UTC the following day. At the same time, the JTWC reported peak 1-minute winds of 60 mph. Following peak intensity, Maarutha ganto degrade due to interaction with the eastern coast of India. At 1430 UTC on June 5, Maarutha made landfall with 40 mph 3-minute winds, and a pressure of 1000 mbar. After moving inland, the low began to rapidly become disorganised, and at 2100 UTC the JTWC downgraded the system to a tropical depression, with the IMD downgrading it to a deep depression. At 2100 UTC on June 6, the JTWC reported that 02B had degenerated into a low pressure area. The IMD continued to track the sytem, before reporting at 0600 UTC on June 7 that Maarutha had degraded to a monsoonal type low. During its existence, Maarutha dropped upwards of 635 mm of rain in most areas affected. Near the landfall site, 937 mmof rain was recorded within 12 hours, and 1200 mm during the passage of the entire storm. 103 people died, and $855 million was done in damages. Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Mora The origins of Mora can be traced to the monsoon trough over southern Asia in early July. On July 2, an area of organising convection broj off the trough, and on July 4 was designated as BOB 03 by the IMD. By 1800 UTC, the JTWC had issued a TCFA, noting that convective banding had developed and wrapped around a consilidating low level circulation. By 0000 UTC, the JTWC had upgraded the system to TC 03B,and the IMD classifid the system as a deep depression. By 1200 UTC, the JTWC had upgraded the system to a tropical storm, around the same time the IMD designated th system as a cyclonic storm, naming it Mora in the process. By 2100 UTC, the JTWC had upgraded the system to a category 1 cyclone as an eye became evident in satelitte imagery, and the IMD upgraed the sytem to a severe cyclonic storm. 0100 UTC on July 5, the IMD upgraded Mora to a very severe cyclonic storm. By 0900 UTC, the JTWC reported that Mora had become a category 2, and indicated further rapid intensification was highly likely. Rapid intensification continued, and at 1500 UTC, the JTWC reported that Mora had become a category 3 cyclone, and would have 48 hours before landfall to intensify further. However, the rate of intensification slowed due to an unexpected increase in shear over the cyclone. At 0000 UTC, the IMD reported that Mora had intensified into an extremely severe cyclonic storm, and at 0300 UTC (July 6), the JTWC reported that Mora had insensified to ctwegory 4 strength and later reported a peak intensity at 145 mph around 1500 UTC. At 0000 UTC July 7, the IMD downgraded Mora to a very severe cyclonic storm, and at 0300 UTC, the JTWC downgradedbthe storm to category 3 after its appeasrance on satelitte became disorganised. At 0900 UTC, the JTWC downgraded the storm to a category 2, then category 1 just 6 hours later. The IMD reported that Mora had weakened to a severe cyclonic storm at 1800 UTC. 2100 UTC, the JTWC downgraded Mora to a tropical storm. 75 minutes later, Mora made landfall on Sri Lanka, and the JTWC downgraded the sytem to a tropical depression at 0900 UTC on July 8, 3 hours after the IMD downgraded the system to a deep depression. At 1500 UTC, the JTWC downgraded Mora to a remnant low, with the IMD following suit at 2100 UTC. During its existence, Mora led to 91 deaths, and $272 million in damages. Category:Predictions Category:NIO cyclone season Category:Hurricane Layten Category:Depression Category:Deep Depression Category:Cyclonic Storm Category:Severe Cyclonic Storm Category:Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Category:Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Category:Super Cyclonic Storm Category:Layten's pages